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| Image via CrunchBase |
There's an obvious frothiness in technology right now. I think it's somewhat less about foolhardy investment of VCs, though that exists, but about would-be technologists and entrepreneurs rapidly generating products that are not quite businesses. And maybe businesses that are half-baked or not quite fully functioning products. Remarkably, during NYTM's question periods, the audience was not allowed to ask questions relating to business model. I've heard those who have asked such questions are boo'd. Why ruin the fun with a dose of reality? (I actually agree with not asking such questions in a public forum.)
Compared to the late 90s, rather than capital being thrown at large out-of-the-gate companies (remember the $50MM invested in the never-launched Pop.com), this froth emanates from programmers and would-be entrepreneurs throwing a lot of macaroni at the wall, hoping to develop something and hit it big. As evidenced by the 100K+ signups on Codecademy.com, there appears to be gold in learning code.
I think what's different about this boom is that it feels more grassroots, and there are seemingly thousands of tech startups, a phenomenon that Sean Parker has remarked is actually hurting attracting talent to more established companies that have a chance to make it. The fact is, we are more than eleven years past the first tech boom and bust, and the Internet is over 18 years old. Consequently, there are many more experienced "hackers" than there were in the late 90s; many of them are too young to remember the last bust. Additionally, the combination of agile development and Seth Godin-like articles, posts, tweets and re-tweets has made everyone feel empowered to be imperfect to get something live. Steve Jobs' famous aphorism "Art ships" pervades. You can't escape it, especially on LinkedIn, intermixed with Harvard Business Review reposts.
This new business spirit is a cool feeling, even when one recognizes that the odds are stacked against us, and few will make it as entrepreneurs. I suppose in order to start something up, it might be helpful to NOT focus on the high failure rate despite what "Thinking, Fast and Slow" points out about probability and baseline statistics for new businesses. If would-be entrepreneurs paid attention to these odds, it's possible many would be scared away -- saving a lot of money, but also potentially inhibiting innovation.
Anyhoo...
I was particularly interested in one start up called Member.ly, which offers a simple platform for selling subscriptions to many hard goods. In my last full time position, numerous clients thought subscription was a key potential way to increase loyalty and profit, though it was unclear how many consumers would be interested in monthly deliveries of pet food and water filters. I thought Member.ly was super smart in that it could be used by virtually any type of business: big, small, publicly held or independent. It could be a go-to destination for gifts year-round: whether bacon of the month or book of the month. It has tremendous potential if it can get the right mix of buyers and sellers.
Another inspiring business was Def-Tel, a service that enables deaf people to communicate via mobile device with hearing people, and vice versa. This could be life changing for so many people. The inventor gave a live demo in the noisy auditorium, and it appeared to work at least as well as Siri. He even answered very specific questions about its open-source technology.
I opted against attending the drinks mixer, but I was totally inspired by the energy at the Tech Meetup.
I had trouble sleeping that night, as I thought about what I had seen and my own "dreams".
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